Some final thoughts on the Brit hostages...

The Brits were released for reasons we will not know for a while. These reasons were probably as internally generated in Iran as externally generated on the waters of the Persian Gulf.

The Iranians were seemingly getting good press in the only area of the world they care about, and making the West look weak to boot. They could have held the longer without reprisal.

Sending another carrier to putt around in the Gulf wouldn't work unless Iran had credible evidence that it would be used. The Iranians didn't get back 5 'consular officers' caught in Iraq, at least we haven't heard of it yet. One was released, and there are rumors of a deal to allow Iran to talk to the rest.

Persian bloggers and commenter's think the entire incident was something of an 'ego trip' by a portion of the government. They note correctly - "Where else in the world does the head of state show up to release a couple of detainees?" One portion of the government needed a boost, but eventually lost out to another. They think this just points out fractures in a government requiring an 'external threat' to patch them over.

I don't know how much this means, but the Persians note that the government seemed a bit confused and non-plussed that there was a woman among the hostages...they didn't quite know what to do and it seemed obvious (to the bloggers anyway) that the government wasn't ready for her...clothes, accommodation's, etc., were not as prepared as they were for the men. One noted on Kamangir's site that she was dressed as a 'steel worker'.

The only advantage I see to this is an examination by Britain, not so much why it happened (we know the ROE), but of how it spiraled out of control, and especially how they let the propaganda value get away from them.

The disadvantage the exact same examination.

I know there are still stout bulldogs in Britain, I correspond with several of them, but the general British public seems to feel this fiasco was simply a natural result of the Anglosphere's failed attempt to stabilize Iraq...the fault of the US primarily of course, and then Britain.

I know how my correspondents feel about this but the general leftist bent of Britain, and the overwhelming number of comments I have read, is troubling.

If I had to bet, I see a retreat and retrenchment for Britain. They will make light of it, they will make some cosmetic changes, they will try and repair the morale of the troops, and they will tell us all that the captives were following orders. They may even redouble their efforts in the 'good' war - Afghanistan.

...but they will spend most of their effort trying to make sure this doesn't happen again. The best way to do that is to make sure that there aren't bodies around where they can be taken by players that can tweak the lion without fear of reprisal.

Britain isn't toast yet, but after having troops taken hostage by a non-belligerent twice in 3 years, with exactly the same results, and an increasingly hostile socialist population electing an increasingly progressive nanny-state government, you have to wonder just how cooked they are.

With apologies to Rudyard...

The Houses (1898)

Twixt my house and thy house the pathway is broad,
In thy house or my house is half the world's hoard;
By my house and thy house hangs all the world's fate,
On thy house and my house lies half the world's hate.

Twixt my house and thy house what talk can there be
Of headship or lordship, or service or fee?
Since my house to thy house no greater can send
Than thy house to my house, friend comforting friend.

Our house will always be there for your house. Friends and Allies since December 24th, 1814. That little incident in the Vancouver Pig War of 1859 with (then) Capt. George Pickett doesn't count.

Yet here from Tony Blair via Samizdata comes a statement - you must really read the last sentence....this has to be satire.  He didn't really say this, did he?

"I am sure that I speak for everyone when I say how delighted I am that the Iranian goverment has released our 15 naval service personnel. This has obviously been a traumatic ordeal for all of them and their families and an extremely trying and difficult time for everyone else in involved in this unfortunate episode. Thankfully, common sense and cooler heads have prevailed. I must, however, make it categorically clear that we did not, nor would we ever, make any concessions, strike any bargains or agree any deals in order to secure their release. It is the unwavering policy of Her Majesty's government to stand firm in the face of threats and to strenuously resist any attempts at blackmail or intimidation of any kind. That said, all that remains for me to do is join in with the rest of the nation in offering up our prayers and thanks to merciful Allah and his last prophet Mohammed, peace be upon him. Thank you."

Update: This email from Perry de Havilland of Samizdata

...and the rest of the Iranian bloggosphere (via Kamangir)...

Haji Kensington asks why the compassion did not apply to the detained [Iranian] activists. Jomhour finds Ahmadinejad's remark embarrassing when he responded to the question whether the sailors were traded for an Iranian diplomat (who was released yesterday) by saying "if we were to trade, we should have traded them for a hundred thousand people". Maryam asks what the final outcome of all this has been for Iran. She uses the title "Fifteen-one for the UK". Mahjad feels pity for the people who protested in front of the British Embassy, asking for a harsh fate for the sailors. He writes "this proved that we do not bow to what we do not like unless it is too strong". To him, it was all "a silly soap opera" Yaghi goes further and asks if this has not been a British plot to boost Blair's popularity. Omid asks where on earth the highest administration figure shows up to say goodbye to a few detainees. Behrang compares this with the hostage-taking of the Americans about thirty years ago. He asks why what formerly was called "lack of dignity" is now addressed as "Islamic compassion". Malakut finds Ahmadinejad's comments silly, especially when he asked the British Government to not to prosecute the sailors for "admitting the truth". Keyvan thinks what has happened is solely Ahmadinejad finding the chance to show up in front of cameras and journalists. Elnaz writes "when Ahmadinejad complained that a British mother has been sent to the front, the camera rolled on a female journalist's face and she was smiling sarcastically".

The conclusion is, the arrest of the British sailors brought about many results. Inside Iran, for many, the obvious outcome was feeling ashamed because of having such a president.

Theo Spark's summary:

'15 sailors captured for straying into Iranian waters. 14 men and 1 woman.
It doesn't take a genius to work out who was reading the fucking map, does it!'