Iranian deception in the Strait of Hormuz

A plausible interpretation of last weekend’s incident is that it was some type of test run for the Iranian attack plan. The exact purposes of Iran’s actions remain unclear, but Strategic Intelligence Estimates.com believes the threatening maneuvers were possibly designed to accomplish some of these following purposes:


1) to conduct a dry run of a suicide bombing against US ships

2) to calibrate the reaction time and defensive techniques of the US Navy

3) to feint an attack in order to identify the specific maneuvers of the naval ships, so that these reactionary maneuvers could be exploited

4) to prepare some form of military deception, in which the naval ships are distracted by a diversionary attack that sets up a more devastating primary attack possibly involving: a) the longer-range land-to-sea missiles they are known to possess; or b) an IRG submarine that is carrying out a conventional torpedo attack, an underwater suicide bombing, or an insertion of an underwater demolition unit.


5) to provoke a US attack that could be exploited for propaganda purposes

The Persians are a proud people with a long history but isolated as heretics in the ME. They also think locally first. This little incident was probably as much a macho stunt as it was for intelligence gathering. The oil/China suggestion was also a good one...Iran, amazingly enough, imports gasoline and needs currency.

I don't think they want to close the Straits. All of their oil ports are inside it and the new oil pipeline they are building ends there also.

It also appears, by US reaction, that this was expected. The military games out more than Global Thermonuclear War...especially with weak players.If they have any kind of intel-gathering capabilities, the Iranians have probably decided how close they can get without being made into fish food. They also know we would pick up survivors, if any.

We played this game of chicken with the Ruskies for decades