McLame ahead in Electoral Voting now...

Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results

# Colorado: Weak Obama -> Weak McCain
# Connecticut: Solid Obama -> Strong Obama
# Indiana: Mod McCain -> Strong McCain
# Iowa: Mod Obama -> Weak Obama
# Maryland: Solid Obama -> Strong Obama
# Minnesota: Mod Obama -> Weak Obama
# Missouri: Weak McCain -> Mod McCain
# Nevada: Weak Obama -> Weak McCain
# New Mexico: Mod Obama -> Weak Obama
# North Carolina: Weak McCain -> Mod McCain
# North Dakota: Mod McCain -> Strong McCain
# Ohio: Weak Obama -> Weak McCain
# Pennsylvania: Mod Obama -> Weak Obama
# South Dakota: Mod McCain -> Strong McCain


Big changes in a week. McLame picked up nearly 60 electoral votes pushing him into a small lead over M'Bonga for the first time. State polling shows McLame getting stronger across the board, and M'Bonga getting weaker...in all instances.

Remember, at this time in past elections, the Dims were way ahead in all categories...and still lost. This doesn't bode well for the Messiah.

The only Northern liberal Democratic presidential candidates since 1964 have been Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry.

Comparing how they did in Gallup polling in July versus the eventual electoral result:

- Mondale and McGovern suffered swings toward the Republicans of 2% and 4% respectively, which in their cases didn’t matter much because they started and stayed a devastating 20% or so behind

- In the closer elections Humphrey (1968) suffered a July-November swing to the Republicans of 6%, Dukakis (1988) 16%, Kerry (2004) 9.5%.

In each case in the fall the Northern liberal's support fell off sharply, when the public found out more about them and the policies they supported.

As a Northern liberal (and he's a very orthodox, rather left of center one at that) this 40-year history suggests that Obama would need to have a solid 10% lead in the polls now just to have an even chance in November, quite apart from any racial considerations (which if they materialize on polling day may well cut both ways).

...and if Hil uses this to grab the nomination away from the magic messiah, I would ovulate* on the spot.

*Which I learned from Rachel Lucas